Carbon dioxide emission reduction quota allocation study on Chinese provinces based on two-stage Shapley information entropy model

Chinese central government made a commitment to achieve a 40–45% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) per unit of GDP by 2020 compared with 2005. This targeted reduction was allocated averagely among all the provinces rather than individually according to different situations of each province. Though some research has been done regarding this rough allocation, two shortcomings in previous studies exist: Firstly, CO₂ marginal abatement cost (MAC) has been ignored as one of the CO₂ emission reduction allocation indexes. Secondly, either subjective or objective method has been used rather than comprehensively of both subjective and objective method to calculate the weight of each index in the previous studies. In order to fill the gaps, this paper builds a two-stage Shapley information entropy model to allocate CO₂ emission reduction quota among the Chinese provinces based on the equity and efficiency principles. Afterward, three CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation scenarios have been proposed. The results show that the CO₂ MAC is an indispensable index in CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation, because its value of CO₂ Shapley information entropy is the highest among five indexes. CO₂ emission reduction quota of lower-MAC provinces should be allocated larger, while the quota of higher-MAC provinces should be allocated smaller. Therefore, two suggested policies have been proposed: First, differential CO₂ emission reduction quota allocation should be proposed. Second, synergetic development should be promoted.     

A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.     

Advances and Trends in Atmospheric Measurement by Smartphones*

With the development and popularization of smartphones and embedded sensors, a non-professional atmospheric measurement method by using smartphones carried by the public has been proposed recently. Without extra dedicated instrument, this method has many advantages, such as low hardware cost, high spatio-temporal resolution, and wide coverage, and it can supplement the professional atmospheric measurement methods, which has broad applications in the meteorological operation, scientific research, public service, and other fields. At present, the research on the non-professional atmospheric measurement in China is limited. In order to make full use of this method, this paper briefly outlined the states of existing smartphones and embedded sensors, highlighted the measurement of precipitation, air temperature, pressure, aerosols, and radiation by smartphones. To promote the development of smartphones for atmospheric measurement, future research should focus on mechanism study, available sources exploration, data quality control, big data processing, joining and matching with operation, research and service, etc.     

北淮阳东段西汤池岩体地球化学特征、锆石U-Pb定年及成因

西汤池岩体位于安徽北淮阳地区舒城县西汤池一带。西汤池似斑状二长花岗岩具高硅、富碱质特征,为铝饱和碱性系列岩石。稀土元素含量中等,(La/Yb)_N与HREE/LREE值较高,重稀土相对轻稀土亏损明显,Eu呈弱负异常,属轻稀土富集型。大离子亲石元素(Rb、K、La、Nd等)明显富集,而高场强元素(Nb、Ta、P、Ti等)亏损。通过LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年,获得西汤池二长花岗岩~(206)Pb/~(238)U年龄为(125.5±1.6)Ma,为早白垩世岩浆活动的产物。基于前人关于北淮阳地区区域地质背景方面的研究成果和本次地球化学构造环境判别方面的研究,认为西汤池二长花岗岩属A_1型花岗岩,形成于后碰撞的伸展构造环境。     

综合物探方法在广西妙皇隐伏多金属矿勘查中的应用

妙皇多金属矿区位于来宾凹陷东缘与大瑶山隆起西侧交接部位,广西大瑶山及其西侧铅锌成矿带中部成矿条件优越,历年来开展过多种研究和找矿方法,但找矿效果不佳。通过研究妙皇铜铅锌银矿区的地质条件和成矿背景,运用综合物探方法,对区内部分地质问题及矿产特征进行了推断和预测。2012年,依据地质物探综合成果布置了ZK22701号验证孔,取得了突破性的进展。同时,依据物探成果推测了矿区成矿机理和成矿模式,在找矿方向和找矿潜力方面进行了分析探讨,对中深部找矿具有很好的指导意义。     

宁芜陶村磁铁矿矿床成矿流体及成矿作用

陶村磁铁矿矿床位于长江中下游成矿带宁芜盆地中段,矿床地质特征及岩浆构造背景与Kiruna型磷灰石-铁氧化物矿床相似。本文在野外工作基础上,通过流体包裹体测温和氢氧硫同位素研究,探讨该矿床成矿流体性质、来源及成矿作用。陶村主要矿石类型为浸染状和脉状磁铁矿,脉状矿石形成稍晚。通过包裹体显微测温获得:磷灰石中包裹体的均一温度集中在210~390℃,盐度集中在15%~23%NaCl_(eqv);石英中包裹体的均一温度集中在330~390℃,盐度主要集中在9%~13%NaCl_(eqv),此外还存在部分高盐度原生包裹体。石英的δD为-96‰~-54‰,δ~(18)O_(H2O)除了一个为8.3‰,其余为1.9‰~4.0‰,指示原始成矿流体为岩浆来源,后期有地表水加入。黄铁矿δ~(34)S为4.8‰~9.3‰,平均值为7.4‰,综合中段地区硫同位素资料,认为成矿流体中的硫来自三叠纪膏盐层与岩浆硫的混合。结合矿床地质特征,陶村成矿作用过程可概括为:岩浆出溶形成的高温含矿气液同化三叠纪膏盐层,带入SO_4~(2-)、Cl~-、Na~+等矿化剂;这种高温气液在岩体内以钠质交代形式富集Fe后,于岩体上部形成浸染状磁铁矿,岩体顶部和边部断裂部位形成(网)脉状磁铁矿。     

Sinian-Cambrian Tectonic Framework in the Tarim Basin and its Influences on the Paleogeography of the Early CambrianEI北大核心CSCD

Due to strong remodification and sparse trace remnants, tectonic restoration is critical for the reconstructing of the paleography and basin-prototype in the multiple-cycles superimposed basin, which is also fundamental for the hydrocarbon exploration of the deep marine carbonate in the Tarim Basin. This study presents the tectonic framework of the transition phase from the Sinian to the Cambrian Period and its constrains on the paleography of the Cambrian in the Tarim Basin based on comprehensive analysis of new geochronology data, seismic data and regional tectonic data. The results showed that (1) there is a large regional unconformity between the Cambrian and Precambrian, suggesting a discontinuous deposition from the Sinian to the Cambrian that is contrary to the major view; (2) a broad flattened paleotopography formed before Cambrian Period, which is favorable for the wide epicontinental sea environment and a gentle homoclinal ramp platform development in the early Cambrian, and the residual basement low relief uplifts that influence the microfacies differentiation in the carbonate platform; (3) the Cambrian carbonate platform has been involved much into the marginal orogenic belts, and the proto-platform is probably of 200 km out of the present basin in S-N direction; (4) there is a weak extensional setting in the Cambrian-Early Ordovician rather than a strong rifting setting with a large aulacogen into the platform, in which a inter-platform shallow depression and stable ramp platform developed in the Cambrian; (5) there is not troughs, but rather low relief uplifts developed in the Early Cambrian in the southwestern Tarim Basin, and lack of large uplifts along the carbonate platform margins; (6) it is showed a broad architecture of platform-wide slope-ocean basin from the inner Tarim plate to its margin in the Cambrian Period. Considering the basin prototype, the restoration of the tectono-paleography in the early Cambrian in the Tarim Basin is distinct from those of the previously proposed. We propose that a gentle pattern with “two platforms and one inter-depression” in E-W striking other than multiple small platform constrained in the basin, and further subdivision of the western platform with inner platform low uplift and sag in N-S striking, which is possibly inherited from the basement architecture. On the outer of the united platform, there is probably broad gentle slope for transition to ocean basin. We therefore argue that tectonic restoration is crucial for reconstruction of the paleogeography and basin prototype, especially for basins experienced multiphase of tectonic cycles. © 2018, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Research Progress and Prospect on Reactivation of Ancient Landslides

The ancient landslide has endured long-term slope evolution which results in its complicated material and special rock-soil properties. The risk of ancient landslide reactivation is substantially increasing due to the increase of intensified human engineering activities and the frequency of extreme weather events. Many ancient landslides have been reactivated all over the world and led to serious fatalities and severe damage to many important engineering facilities such as transportation and hydropower engineering projects. On the basis of the analysis of the research situation about the ancient landslides at home and abroad, the main research advances were summarized including the regional developing laws and recognizing of the ancient landslides, the mechanics properties of ancient landslide body and related sliding zone, reactivation mechanism of ancient landslides, reactivating process and modeling analysis of ancient landslides, early recognization of ancient landslide reactivation, etc. To meet the demands of disaster prevention and reduction, three key scientific issues were put forward to be solved: ①automaticaly establishing the methodology and identification criterions for recognition of ancient landslide; ②revealing the reactivation mechanism of ancient landslide based on a new strength theory; ③establishing the early rapid recognition method and predictive model for ancient landslide reactivation. Solving the above mentioned scientific theory and methodology will facilitate the planning and site selection of major projects as well as the disaster prevention and reduction in ancient landslide developing areas.     

川滇黔邻区龙马溪组页岩气富集主控因素与勘探方向

中国的页岩气资源评价必须立足于中国主要陆块的地质条件与构造演化特点之上,对于不同层系、不同地区的页岩气选区评价,也必须抓住关键因素。川滇黔邻区的五峰组-龙马溪组富有机质页岩发育,但保存条件较渝东南地区更为复杂。印支期以来,该区经历了多期次构造应力场转换,断裂、褶皱发育,因此,建立针对性的页岩气选区评价参数体系是该区页岩气勘探走出困局的当务之急。本文在分析该区已有页岩气钻井成效的基础上,立足于扬子海相层系页岩气勘探应是基于保存条件的"连续型甜点区"的选区评价基本思路,结合前人研究成果,系统梳理出一套评价指标体系。该体系涵盖5大因素(区域盖层、直接盖层、底板条件、页岩层自身条件、构造改造强度)、4个等级、17个选区评价参数。另外,根据已有相关钻井数据,总结提出了5个页岩气层评价表征参数(含气量、孔隙度、电阻率、氮气组分含量和压力系数)。根据该指标体系,对川滇黔邻区的主要构造单元进行了梳理分析,优选出5个有利区,提出了各有利区的首选可能突破点。本研究对复杂构造区页岩气有利区带优选具有一定的指导意义。     

中国长三角地区PM2.5时空分布数值模拟研究

利用第三代空气质量预报模式LOTOS-EUROS(Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Operational Smog)对2018年中国长三角地区细颗粒物(PM_2.5)浓度的时空分布进行数值模拟,通过对比模拟结果与地面观测值,验证模式对PM_2.5长期特征模拟的合理性并探讨长三角地区PM_2.5的时空分布特征。结果表明：LOTOS-EUROS模式可以较好地再现中国长三角地区PM_2.5浓度的时空分布特征,监测站点观测值和模拟值的整体相关系数达到0.64,可以用于长三角地区细颗粒物的模拟。长三角地区PM_2.5浓度呈冬高夏低,西北高东南低的特征。冬季PM_2.5浓度高值出现在长三角地区的西北部,安徽省等地区的浓度水平最大值可达到160 μg·m^-3;春季和秋季PM_2.5浓度的高值集中在30°N以北、120°E以西地区,浓度为40-80 μg·m^-3;而夏季PM_2.5浓度水平大幅度降低,大部分地区维持在20-40 μg·m^-3,低值中心出现在长三角地区东南部沿海城市,低于10 μg·m^-3,最低值可达5 μg·m^-3。